Chaos, Cuts and Censorship – Expected Impact on Scholarly Publishing from US Government Actions

By Cara Rivera, VP, Consulting and Market Analysis at KGL

At this year's KGL Accucoms Virtual Market Update, I gave a presentation on some of the overarching themes currently impacting the US research landscape and in turn the global scholarly publishing industry.

Focusing predominantly on the new US government's policies and the profound impact they are having on the industry, my talk painted a stark picture of what the future might hold, and the unprecedented challenges publishers will face.

Executive orders and agency directives are being pushed through with thus far only a smattering of reversals brought about almost entirely by judicial renderings and public backlash, restructuring, and drastic funding cuts being enforced on major agencies such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF),  Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as on research intensive universities. While USDA cuts already threaten food security, some cutbacks have been reversed. And although as of this writing, the federal budget bill seems that it will eventually be passed with historical decreases in NIH, NSF, and other critical agency funding.

Here are five ways in which scholarly publishers are expected to be impacted.

1. Shrinking research output

A significant reduction in grant-funded projects will inevitably lead to a decline in US author output. This will in turn reduce the only growing revenue stream for journals: revenues from open access—both author- and institution-paid. Additionally, institutional subscriptions will be hit from two directions—significantly reduced funds for subscriptions and higher costs-per-use given declining output leading to subscription cancellations. Publishers will likely really start to feel the pinch beginning in 2026. Although OA could help to offset this decline to an extent, cuts at an institutional level will make it harder for universities to pay for Article Processing Charges (APCs).

2. US-centric journals hit the hardest

The downward pressure on subscription and OA journal revenues will undoubtedly hit US-centric journals the hardest due to their reliance on US-funded research. Some journals we have studied rely on publication of US-funded research for most or essentially all of their published article volume. Those with greater global outreach could also suffer as anti-US sentiment permeates among the global scientific community and academics but may choose non-US alternatives for their submissions.

3. Political skewing of research

As research comes under increased political scrutiny, we saw immediate unsubmissions and editing to move away from particularly politically charged language and we expect to see a decline in research in several key areas, including climate change, reproductive health, DEI and AI regulation. Citing NIH cuts, Environmental Health Perspectives recently stopped accepting submissions as the US administration follows through on its threats to end climate research and controversially pushes for greater political involvement in science. Prominent US-based journals have received threatening letters " and there are rumblings at the FDA and elsewhere that US-funded research should only be published in US-approved journals.

4. Global power shift

The severity of the cuts proposed in the 2026 budget could spark a long-term erosion of US research and an overall shifting of the scientific powerbase away from the US. With reports that scientists and researchers are already departing the US and being offered lucrative terms to work in Europe, the balance of power is already tilting away, and we could be witnessing a resetting of global science leadership.

5. Mandate uncertainty

And finally, the surprising and sudden decision to bring forward an NIH mandate to make all manuscripts accepted after July 1, 2025, OA, has added more complexity to an already disorderly scholarly environment. Concurrently facing higher publishing costs and slashed grant and university funding, this will likely add to the burden and pressure on US researchers and institutions, and again publisher revenues from OA and subscriptions.

While the situation is constantly evolving and I, like so many others, see a bleak future for US research six months into the current administration, there are measures societies and publishers can take. My KGL Consulting colleague, Kevin Lomangino outlined several strategies in his recent article, Publishing Strategy in Times of Crisis.

Cara Rivera is VP, Consulting and Market Analysis at KnowledgeWorks Global Ltd. Founder of what is now KGL Consulting, she ensures that our esteemed clients and the organization overall anticipate and remain responsive to environmental changes.  

To find out KGL Consulting can help your society weather current and upcoming market conditions and reach your objectives, contact us at info@kwglobal.com.